“Maghihintay muna ako matapos ang giyera bago ako mag-invest.”

Mukhang logical pakinggan. Sino ba naman ang gustong mag-invest habang magulo ang mundo?

Pero kung cost averaging strategy ang ginagawa mo sa S&P500, waiting for the war to stop may not be the best idea.

Tingnan mo ang logarithmic chart ng S&P500.

From the 1930s up to today, dinaanan ng US stock market ang World War II, Korean War, Vietnam War, Cold War, Gulf War, 9/11, Iraq War, financial crises, oil shocks, inflation, recessions, pandemic, interest rate hikes, and many other global problems.

Pero ano ang nangyari sa long term?

Umakyat pa rin.

Hindi straight line. Hindi laging green. May malalaking bagsak. May ilang taon na parang walang nangyayari. May periods na nakakatakot talaga.

Pero kung ang strategy mo ay cost averaging for 10, 20, or 30 years, ang goal mo ay hindi hulaan kung kailan matatapos ang giyera. Ang goal mo ay bumili consistently habang mababa, habang mataas, habang takot ang market, at habang optimistic ang market.

Kasi ang problema sa paghihintay ay ito:

Kapag naghihintay ka ng “perfect time,” madalas hindi mo alam kung kailan darating iyon. At minsan, bago pa matapos ang fear sa balita, naka-recover na ang market.

Ang stock market does not wait for the world to become peaceful. It usually moves ahead before the news becomes comfortable.

Kaya kung S&P500 cost averaging ang strategy mo, hindi mo kailangang ilagay lahat ng pera mo ngayon. Hindi mo rin kailangang magpaka-hero at bumili nang todo habang may uncertainty.

Ang kailangan mo ay system.

Buwan-buwan. Consistent. Long term. With proper emergency fund. With proper time horizon. With money you do not need soon.

War or no war, crisis or no crisis, recession or no recession — if your goal is retirement 20 to 30 years from now, the bigger risk may not be the war.

The bigger risk may be staying in cash for too long because you are always waiting for the world to become “safe.”

Because historically, the world was almost never perfectly safe.

Pero ang S&P500, over the long term, still continued to compound.

Hindi ibig sabihin guaranteed ang future. Hindi rin ibig sabihin walang risk. But this graph reminds us of one powerful lesson:

You do not build wealth by waiting for all problems to disappear. You build wealth by investing with discipline despite the problems.

That is the purpose of cost averaging.

Hindi para hulaan ang bottom.

Kundi para hindi ka ma-paralyze ng fear.

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/14g8ZSuFeiy/